Conflict Prevention - Assessing State Fragility


Brown, Susan. Risk Factors for Violent Conflict: A Consolidation of Risk Assessment Approaches. Peacebuilding Centre. Ottawa. 2009


Carleton University. Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP). Failed and Fragile States Indicators.(Fragile States section)


Clingendael Institute for the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Stability Assessment Framework: Designing Integrated Responses for Security, Governance and Development. This document is also available at CERN


Fund for Peace. Failed States Index.


Fund for Peace. Conflict Assessment Indicator Descriptions 2006.


Spelton, Angelika. An Indicator Model for Use as an Additional Instrument for Planning and Analysis in Development Cooperationextracted from Crisis Analysis in Development Cooperation. German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. Bonn. 1998.


UK Government. Cabinet Office. Prime Minister's Strategy Unit. Countries at Risk of Instability: Risk Assessment and Strategic Analysis Process Manual. London. 2005


University of Maryland. State Failure Task Force. The Peace and Conflict Ledger.


Van de Goor, Luc and Suzanne Verstegen. Conflict Prognosis: A Conflict and Policy Assessment Framework. Part Two. The Hague: Netherlands Institute of International Relations "Clingendael," June 2000 (see pages 52-60).

  • This document is a combination of risk assessment tools (the vulnerability of the country to state failure) in Annex A, and B, and response design tools which may be found in Annex C.

World Bank (Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Unit). The Conflict Analysis Framework (CAF): Identifying Conflict-related Obstacles to Development. Dissemination Notes, Number 5, October 2002. (NOTE: the first part deals with Risk Screening Indicators for fragility).


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Policy and Rationale

OECD/DAC, Conflict and Fragility Network.


OECD/DAC, Service Delivery In Fragile Situations, 2008


OECD/DAC, Fragile States: Policy Commitment and Principles for Good International Engagement in Fragile States and Situations, 2007


Torres, Magiii Moreno and Michael Anderson. Fragile States: Defining Difficult Environments for Poverty Reduction. PRDE Working Paper 1, UK Department for International Development, August 2004.


US Agency for International Development. Fragile States Strategy. Washington, D.C. USAID, January 2005.


World Bank, Fragile and Conflict-Affected Countries Group.


World Bank, International Development Agency, IDA 15, Operational Approaches and Financing in Fragile States, June 2007.


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